There’s Freight You Can’t Cover Right Now

Carriers are turning down about one in eight contract loads right now because they do not have a truck for them. A year ago that number was closer to one in seventeen. Tractor counts are down about 2% year over year, new Class 8 build slots for 2026 sold out months ago, and spot rates are forecast to run $3.75 to $4.00 a mile into December. If you have been thinking about adding a truck, the math is about as favorable as it gets.

That is a forecast, not a promise, and it comes from SONAR data read by analysts rather than from us. But the direction is not really in dispute.

What the numbers say

Tender rejection rate is the useful one. It measures how often a carrier says no to a load they have a contract for, and the reason is almost always that the truck is not available.

By mode it is uneven. Reefer is running about 22%, flatbed about 18%, van about 13%. If you are in refrigerated or flatbed work, your customers are feeling this harder than the average.

Imports are up roughly 20% year over year, which keeps pressure on drayage through November. Retail peak lands this month. December is the tightest month of the year and last year rejections doubled during it.

Why you cannot solve it with a new truck

Two reasons.

New Class 8 sleepers have been running past $170,000 as a sustained baseline, with roughly $10,000 of that attributable to tariffs. And demand for the remaining 2026 production slots exceeded available build capacity months ago. If you do not already have an order in, there is no new truck arriving before January.

Used is the only door that is still open this year.

What it takes to put one to work

Honest answer: more steps than people expect, and most of them are not negotiable.

1. Decide the spec before you shop. Engine, transmission, axle configuration, day cab or sleeper. This is what makes everything after it fast.
2. Get financing pre-approved. This is the step people leave until last and it is the one most likely to add a week. See how financing actually works.
3. Pick from trucks that are already inspected and repaired. Anything still in process adds time.
4. Title, insurance, delivery.

There is no build slot or order queue to wait on. We sell used trucks, so if a truck is online for sale, it is ready for sale.

The part with a deadline

Section 179 lets you deduct the full purchase price of a truck over 14,000 lbs GVWR in the year you buy it, up to $2,560,000 for 2026, with 100% bonus depreciation on anything above that. Used equipment qualifies as long as it is new to your business.

The catch is that the truck has to be placed in service by December 31, meaning ready and available to work. Not ordered. Not in transit. Working.

We wrote the full timeline in Last Call. Short version: November is the last comfortable month.

Not tax advice. Talk to your CPA, and talk to them this week rather than in December.

What we would actually tell you

If you have freight you are turning away, add the truck. The revenue case stands on its own and the tax treatment is a bonus on top.

If you do not, do not let a deduction talk you into a truck. A deduction returns a fraction of what you spend. It is a reason to move a purchase forward, not a reason to make one.

Frequently asked questions

Is now a good time to buy a used semi truck?

Capacity is tight, with tender rejections near 13% against roughly 6% a year ago, and spot rates forecast 20 to 25% above last year. New trucks are effectively unavailable for 2026 delivery. For an operator with freight to cover, conditions favor buying.

Why can’t I get a new truck this year?

Demand for remaining 2026 Class 8 production slots exceeded available build capacity, so new orders are landing in 2027.

How late can I buy a truck and still take Section 179 this year?

The truck must be placed in service by December 31, 2026. Because inspection, financing, titling, and delivery all take time, the practical window closes well before then.